More Homes, Higher Rates, and Still a Seller’s Market? Here’s What Madison’s Doing Right Now.

By Joshua Holt

Meet Joshua, a licensed real estate professional and accomplished broker. As the forward-thinking leader of the Holt Real Estate Team, he has forged a strategic alliance with Keller Williams and PLACE to deliver on Our Promise.

There’s a lot of confusing, and honestly contradictory, information out there about the housing market right now. You’re hearing there are far more homes for sale, but also that it’s still a seller’s market. You’re hearing rates are high, but that people are still buying. So what’s actually happening here in Madison? We track this data every single week, and here’s the real picture, cutting through the noise.

We don’t guess at this, we track it. Every week, going back years, we log exactly what the Madison-area market is doing, and right now it’s one of the more interesting markets we’ve seen. The headline: there are more homes for sale than there have been in about four years, likely since before the pandemic, so buyers today have more choices than they’ve had in a long time. But, and this surprises people, that doesn’t mean the market has crashed or flipped. Not even close. At the same time, homes are still selling in roughly the same amount of time they have been, still selling for right around asking, and by the actual measure of supply, this is still technically a seller’s market. So how can there be more homes than we’ve seen in years and it still be a seller’s market? That’s exactly what’s worth understanding, because it’s the key to making a smart move.

First, this is a market of contradictions, and that’s the most important takeaway. There are more homes on the market than we’ve seen in years, yet we still have less than three months of supply, and anything under about five to six months is considered a seller’s market. So by that measure, we’re still in one. Here’s where people get tripped up: it isn’t uniform. In the same week, one home comes on and gets multiple offers and goes under contract in a single weekend, even at a higher price point, while another home a neighborhood over sits for eighty, a hundred, or more days. Some homes you’d expect to fly are sitting; some you’d expect to sit are flying. There’s no simple rule like “this price point is hot.” It’s all over the board, which is exactly why you can’t go off the headlines or a gut feeling right now, you have to go off real, current data.

Second, the question we get most: should you make a move with rates where they are? Our honest answer: we’re firm believers you can’t time the market. Nobody actually knows what rates or prices will do next. So the question isn’t “are rates perfect?” It’s “do you need to make a move?” If your situation genuinely isn’t working, rising rent, a job change, a family or lifestyle change, or an investment timeline, then you move when you need to move. And here’s the logic we think matters most: if you buy now and rates improve later, you can refinance. But if you wait and rates get worse, the home you wanted is more expensive too, and if you decide to stay and remodel instead, that’s gotten more expensive as well, since materials and labor keep climbing. Waiting for a “perfect” moment often just costs you more. Everyone’s finances are different, so this is general perspective, not financial advice, but the principle holds: make your move based on your life, not on predicting the market.

Third, and most important: in a market like this, strategy is everything. This is not a market to wing, on either side. If you’re selling, pricing is critical. With this many homes available, this is not a “list it high and see what happens” market, those are the homes that sit for a hundred-plus days and go stale. You price with real data and a real strategy from day one. And we’ll always give it to you straight, even when the honest number isn’t the one you hoped for, because telling you the truth is how we actually get your home sold. If you’re buying, be just as strategic. You can’t casually browse, stumble onto something, and then start figuring out financing. You need to be pre-approved and ready, with a clear plan, so when the right home comes up, and it can still go fast, you’re positioned to win it. More choices doesn’t mean you can be passive. It means the buyers and sellers who work with real data and a real strategy are the ones who come out ahead.

So here’s the bottom line. Yes, rates are higher than the lows a lot of people got used to. Yes, there are more homes to choose from than we’ve seen in years. And yes, it’s still a seller’s market. All of that is true at once, and people are still moving every day, because life doesn’t wait for the perfect market.

So if you need to make a move, our message is simple: make it, and make it with a team that uses real data and a real strategy to help you win, whether you’re buying or selling. If you’re anywhere in the Madison area and even thinking about a move, call or text us at 608-345-6594, email us at info@holtrealestateteam.com, or visit holtrealestateteam.com. Let’s look at your specific situation and build a plan that actually works for you. (This is general market information, not financial advice.)